Thursday, August 26, 2010
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
2010.8
DIA
The September spread expired safely with the SPY closing at 107 well below our Aug 115/116 credit spread. This was a only a five contract play at 27 cents. That left a profit of $117.50 after commissions. A 13.5% profit for the month.
This month the VIX is turning up a bit.
Jumped into DIA, SPY, FXI and GLD with both feet.
All of the ETF's are trading below the 200 day SMA, ADX is starting to turn up, the MACD turned down, and the ATR is still low.
Just started checking out TEDLINES PNF charts over at stockcharts.com for support and resistance reference.
Here are the trades I went in with today.
10 DIA Bear Credit Spread Sept 105/106 Calls for 17 cents credit
10 FXI Bear Credit Spread Sept 41/42 Calls for 16 cents credit
10 SPY Bear Credit Spread Sept 110/111 Calls for 19 cents credit
10 GLD Bull Put Spread Sept 116/115 Puts for 11 cents credit
Thursday, August 5, 2010
A bear call spread in a low volatility world
First week of August 2010.
Looking for income plays in a sideways market.
SPY rose this past week to 113 in low volume. Its above the 200 day sma and the 20month ema which is bullish but its in a rising wedge pattern on low volume which is bearish. The MACD is rising. The ADX is declining.
VIX is low around 22. Falling VIX = rising stocks but if its at an extreme (under 25) then it signals a possible top. Wait for crossover confirmation.
Put/Call ratio is sitting above the .60 range.
Entered in (5) Aug10 115/116 Bear Call Spread for a credit of .31.
Imp prob 115 - 20%
Imp prob 116 - 19%
Risk is spread - credit or 100 - 31 = 69
69 x 5 contracts = 345
Probability exp 115 27.32%
Probability exp 116 19.79%
Profit is limited to $155
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