Dividend Based Investing
The Lure of Rising DividendsMarch 13, 2007 on 8:59 am In 3) Stocks No Comments
By Jeffrey R. KosnettFrom Kiplinger's Personal Finance magazine, April 2007
Think of dividends and you may conjure up visions of carefree retirees using checks from utility stocks to pay for greens fees and trips to Hawaii. But dividend-paying stocks don't have to be stodgy. Whether you're 25 or 75, you can use dividend trends to flag solid growth companies run by managers who truly care about their shareholders. And how do you do that? Easy -- by finding companies that shower investors with more cash, year after year.
U.S. companies have plenty of money to share. Last year, they earned $1.8 trillion and "returned" $660 billion to stockholders. Two-thirds of that money flowed indirectly to investors when companies bought back their own stocks, a move designed to raise prices by spreading profits across fewer shares. However, companies often recycle many of the shares they buy back, giving them to employees and other holders of stock options. That practice can dilute the effect of the buyback.
But cash! Now there's a sure thing. And there's rarely been a better time to collect it. That's because the federal tax rate on most dividends is just 15%. Since 2003, when Congress cut taxes on dividends, more than 300 U.S. companies have initiated cash disbursements, and hundreds of others have raised once-token payments to meaningful levels. Last year, some 2,000 companies boosted their dividends.
Don't confuse dividend excellence with stocks that yield the most (yield is the annual cash dividend divided by the stock price). In fact, a high yield can be a warning that something is amiss with the company and that it is likely to cut the distribution. That was the case with both Ford Motor and General Motors. Because of big share-price declines, their yields climbed as high as 10% before both automakers whacked their payouts. In addition, some dividends may not be as valuable as they seem to be, because of the impact of taxes. For example, most dividends from real estate investment trusts are taxed at regular rates, up to 35%. REITs are perfectly fine for your IRA, but look for stocks that pay dividends that qualify for the 15% rate to stash in a non-tax-sheltered account.
It's not hard to find dividend-growth champs. Standard & Poor's, for instance, lists dividend "aristocrats," companies in S&P's 500-stock index that have boosted their dividends for at least 25 years in a row. Mergent, another supplier of financial information, names dividend "achievers," companies that have boosted payouts for at least ten years and have met other criteria. If you prefer to let a pro pick the stocks, we identify three solid funds on page 36 that focus on payout boosters. Below, we use four different dividend-growth strategies to identify eight promising stocks.
All-around champs
These are the companies that boost dividends year after year after year. S&P says that over the past 15 years, its 59 current aristocrats have produced an average total return of 13% annually. That exceeds the return of the S&P 500 by an average of two percentage points per year. Moreover, S&P's dividend royals have provided those superior returns with below-average risk.
Who are these overachievers? Many are banks and insurers, both of which usually pay high dividends. Financial companies rarely carry high long-term debt loads and don't need to invest heavily in research and development or in expensive manufacturing facilities. Therefore, they accumulate and retain a lot of cash. But some investors lump financial companies together with other plodders, such as electric utilities. That's a mistake.
A bank can be both a dividend champ and a growth company. M&T Bank Corp. (MTB) is a case in point. It has raised its dividend 18% a year since 1983. M&T's stock has been fabulous as well, with an annualized return of 24% since 1980. M&T's performance is all the more amazing considering that the company operates mostly in long-declining sections of upstate New York in and near Buffalo, where it's based, and Rochester. M&T's opportune acquisition of a scandal-tainted Maryland bank in 2002 gives it a foothold in a more-thriving area.
The aristocrats also include prosaic industrial firms. W.W. Grainger (GWW) sells 138,000 products, including motors, tools, building-maintenance equipment and worker-safety gear. With customers that range from small heating contractors to the U.S. government, Grainger is well insulated from troubles in any segment of the economy. The company raised its dividend 21% last year, marking the 35th straight year of payout increases.
Or look at Johnson Controls (JCI), a 122-year-old company that is changing radically. Once dependent on sales of car interiors to Ford and GM, Johnson has added industrial air conditioners, environmental building-control systems and lithium-ion batteries. The new lines, aided by healthy sales of car seats and dashboards to foreign automakers, are leading to record profits. Analyst Ronald Tadross, of Bank of America Securities, says Johnson is capable of boosting its dividend 15% a year for the foreseeable future. The strong earnings gains that will fuel the growing dividend should help Johnson shares achieve a higher price-earnings ratio -- one that is more in line with those of the best diversified manufacturers.
If you're concerned that a company that steadily raises it dividends will undermine future earnings growth, you can relax. "High-dividend companies tend to experience strong, not weak, future earnings growth," says Baruch College professor Ping Zhou, who, with a colleague, has studied market data going back 50 years. They also found that the relationship between dividend growth and subsequent earnings gains is much closer than the connection between share buybacks and future profit growth.
Huge boosters
Not until 1993 did Harley-Davidson (HOG) pay its first dividend. But once the legendary motorcycle maker got religion, it went, er, hog wild. Harley has boosted dividends 30% annualized over the past ten years and 47% annualized over the past five. The annual payout rate is now 84 cents per share. Harley's total payouts went from $41 million in 2002 to $220 million last year. The short-term outlook for Harley shares may be clouded by the aftereffects of a strike and current high inventories, but motorcycle sales usually vroom in the spring and summer, and so often does the stock.
Praxair (PX), a supplier of oxygen, hydrogen, helium and other gases to industry, is as obscure as Harley is celebrated. But it's another convert to the notion that bigger is better when it comes to boosting the dividend. In January, upon release of its 2006 results, Praxair increased its dividend by 20%, to an annual rate of $1.20 per share. Chief financial officer Jim Sawyer told Wall Street that "we expect something similar in size or a little larger" when the company releases 2007 results next January.
Praxair is a perfect example of how rising dividends and a fine earnings outlook feed on one another. The company has issued bullish profit projections for 2007 based on expected high returns on its investments in Asia and Latin America. Normally, a company might set aside the extra earnings to pay down debt, build more facilities or make acquisitions. But Praxair already has numerous expansion projects in progress and decided that deals would be too costly now. Praxair's solution to this pleasant problem: Remember the shareholders. A doubling of the dividend since 2004 is proof that Praxair hasn't forgotten them.
Great expectations
How do you find companies that may boost dividends sharply in the future? You can screen for ideas using the online version of the Value Line Investment Survey. The service, for example, lets you compare stocks with the highest "projected dividend growth rates" over the next three to five years with companies that have boosted their payouts steadily over the past ten years. The exercise produces a short list of compelling candidates, including Harley and M&T.
Two sleepers among potential dividend boosters are Fastenal (FAST) and Expeditors International (EXPD). Value Line expects each to boost its distributions 24% a year over the next few years.
Fastenal, a distributor and retailer of industrial and construction supplies, sometimes competes with W.W. Grainger. Expeditors manages air and ocean freight for shippers, which pay the company to find space on cargo ships and planes. Neither stock yields much, but some consider serial dividend increases to be an indicator of financial health and profitability, and both stocks have performed well. Over the past decade of rapid dividend growth, Expeditors shares returned a sizzling 32% annualized and Fastenal returned 15%. Both companies say they plan to persist with regular increases. "There's nothing magical about this, no great epiphany in the boardroom," says Jordan Gates, Expeditors' chief financial officer. "We just say that as we increase earnings, we'll be sure to raise dividends."
Expeditors and Fastenal are members of an exclusive club. They are among only 22 stocks caught by a Value Line filter for high past and future dividend growth, high ten-year returns on total capital (a measure of profitability), and high ten-year cash-flow growth. Among others in this august group are insurance broker Brown & Brown, Harley, medical-device maker Stryker and mutual fund giant T. Rowe Price. Historically, all have been fabulous stocks for investors to own at any stage of life and in almost any kind of market.
New believers
The reduction in dividend tax rates enacted in 2003 helped reverse a 20-year decline in the percentage of publicly traded companies that pay dividends. It also seems to have changed entire industries.
Take freight shipping, for example. Fleets of tankers and containerships have been converted into entities that promise both smooth sailing and steadily increasing dividends. For example, Seaspan (SSW), a fleet of 41 containerships, went public in 2005 at $19 and set its first full-year dividend at $1.70 a year. In January, it raised the yearly payout rate to $1.79 a share. Chief executive Gerry Wang says he's aiming to deliver a "very, very steady pattern of dividend increases," which he hopes will lead to steady share-price performance.
Thirty-eight of Seaspan's ships are leased for 10 to 12 years, which improves the chances that the company will be able to steadily boost dividends. As Seaspan acquires more ships, the company will make more money and earmark some of the increased profits for higher dividends, says Wang. Investors seem to be happy with the strategy, as Seaspan shares have risen to $26 in less than two years.
Seaspan is one of hundreds of new dividend payers. Not all of the newcomers will be able to boost their payouts year after year or win inclusion in a list of dividend aristocrats. But those that do will be sending a powerful message to their shareholders. As David Pearl, chief of U.S. stocks at Epoch Investment Partners, a New York City money-management firm, puts it: "There's no question that if a company grows its dividends and raises them every year, it's making a public statement and a commitment."
By the numbers: 8 companies that enjoy sharing the wealth
As the table indicates, growing dividends are not synonymous with high yields. But as long as their profits keep growing, expect the companies listed below to boost payouts. And that should bode well for share prices.
Expeditors Intl EXPD $44 $9.5 $0.22 0.5% 9 34.5% Harley-Davidson HOG 68 17.5 0.84 1.2 13 46.5 M&T Bank Corp. MTB 122 13.4 2.40 2.0 19 17.6 Seaspan SSW 26 0.9 1.79 7.0 1 N/AData to February 12. N/A not applicable; company went public in 2005. Sources: The companies, Value Line, Yahoo.
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My Dividends Are Bigger Than YoursMarch 8, 2007 on 9:47 am In 2) General No Comments
By Selena MaranjianMarch 7, 2007
I did an interesting little calculation the other day. You see, I own shares of Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation Johnson & Johnson, which I bought for about $43 each back in 2002. The stock has recently been trading for around $62 per share. If you look up the dividend yield for the stock, it's approximately 2.4%, a pretty respectable number. That's the yield you'd get on your investment if you bought the shares at the current price.
Not me, though. My dividend yield for Johnson & Johnson is approximately 3.5%. Even better: I suspect it might be 13% or more in just 10 years.
Let me explain
Remember, my purchase price was roughly $43 per share. If you take the current annual dividend amount of $1.50 (which is paid out in quarterly installments, like most dividends), and divide it by my purchase price, you get a dividend yield of 3.5%. Divide it by the current price, and you get 2.4%.
My yield is bigger because I bought the stock for less. The dividend is growing, too. When I bought back in 2002, the annual dividend was just $0.82.
Here's a quick look at J&J's quarterly and annual dividend amounts in past years, plus the increase of each amount over the previous sum:
Over the past five years, the dividend has grown by an average of more than 15% annually. (Stay tuned -- I'll soon tell you how you can earn great returns from this steady dividend growth.)
Future shock
The reliability of J&J's dividend and the strength of the company's business helps me project my dividend yield into the future. (The company sports 45 consecutive years of dividend increases!) I'll assume 14% dividend growth per year over the next 10 years. If that happens, the current annual dividend of $1.50 will turn into $5.50. Given my $43 purchase price, that gives me an effective 13% yield!
So my modest initial investment of not much more than $4,000 will be kicking out more than $500 per year to me at that time.
Fast-forward 20 years instead of 10, and let's assume that the dividend has "only" grown by an annual average of 12%. That would put it at $14.47, which would give me a yield of 34%! (If it grows by an average of 14% instead, that will give me an effective 48% yield.) It wouldn't be unreasonable to imagine that at that time (in 2027), the stock will be trading with a then-current yield of 2% to 4%. That means I'll have more than 700% capital gains to go along with my 34% yield.
How you can do it
These kinds of incredible gains can be yours, too, as long as you seek out solid, growing dividend payers and hang on for the long haul. You might think of Disney (DIS) as a relatively sleepy company, for example (or a dopey or sneezy one), but it has hiked its dividend by an annual average of 22% over the past decade. Here are a few other notable dividend hikers:
Enter symbol for stock info.
Are these all good prospects for investment? Well, some are better than others, of course, and there are probably even better prospects out there. If you find some solid companies paying growing dividends you should be able to rely on, you'll likely earn huge effective yields down the line. Not a bad deal, eh?
We'd love to introduce you to an even more promising group of dividend payers via our Income Investor service, which you can try for free. The picks are beating the market to date and last time I checked, they offered an average current yield of more than 4%. And if Johnson & Johnson has taught us anything, it's that it pays to buy our dividends now. Click here to learn more.
This article was originally published on June 15, 2006. It has been updated.
Selena Maranjian owns shares of Johnson & Johnson. Johnson & Johnson, Sysco, and Wrigley are Income Investor recommendations. Coca-Cola and Wal-Mart are Inside Value picks. Disney is a Stock Advisor selection. The Motley Fool is Fools writing for Fools.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Dividend Growth Stock Investing
Dividend Growth Stock Investing
Dividend Growth Stock Investing
The Investment U E-Letter: Issue # 600Wednesday, November 01, 2006
Dividend Growth Stock Investing: How To Get Solid Returns with Little Risk... Plus, 5 Dividend-Paying Investments to Considerby Mark Skousen, Chairman, Investment U
What do beer, cigarettes and drugs have in common?
If you said “vices,” you’re wrong. Blue chip companies have all adopted a superior shareholder benefit program that investors seem to love. It’s called “Dividend Growth” – a policy of increasing their dividend over time.
And, for investors, the idea of Dividend Growth Stock Investing is spreading like wildfire…
The following mature companies all raise their dividend every year, or almost every year:
Beverage Companies
Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc. (NYSE: BUD)
Coca-Cola Bottling (Nasdaq: COKE)
Cigarette Manufacturers
Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE: MO)
Reynolds American, Inc. (NYSE: RAI)
Pharmaceuticals
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)
Merck (NYSE: MRK)
Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY)
Financials
SunTrust (NYSE: STI)
Citigroup (NYSE: C)
Wachovia (NYSE: WB)
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)
Giant Retailers
Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT)
Target (NYSE: TGT)
Costco (Nasdaq: COST)
Best Buy (NYSE: BBY)
Big Oil
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)Since dividends have to come out of earnings, companies that adopt this strategy tend to start out conservatively. The payout ratio is typically 25% or less. But some large-cap blue chip stocks are paying out more than 50% of earnings in dividends.
The yield in dividend growth companies varies dramatically – from a low of 1% or less, such as AIG (NYSE: AIG), to more than 10%, such as Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA).
Some companies have been increasing their annual dividend for 40 years or more:
3M Company (NYSE: MMM) in St. Paul, Minnesota
Coca-Cola in Atlanta, Georgia
Colgate Palmolive (NYSE: CL) of New York, New York.
But here’s the question:
Can the Dividend Growth Stocks Strategy Help Investors Beat the Market?
Some investment advisors swear by dividend growth as the technique for conservative investors.
Lowell Miller, who heads up the money management firm of Miller/Howard Investments, is so taken with the idea that he’s written an entire book on it called The Single Best Investment: Consistently Creating Wealth with Dividend Growth.
He states, “Dividend growth is real. Neither dividends nor dividend growth are some propaganda from the company, nor some hype from a brokerage firm or newsletter writer, nor some error of judgment by a finance magazine.” He calls dividend growth investing “sensible, easy, and profitable,” offering solid returns with the lowest possible risk.
Why? Because companies that increase their dividend are constantly under pressure to perform well and earn a profit every year. If they start losing money, the board of directors will be forced to do something they hate to d decrease or suspend the dividend. Most avoid it like the plague, in part because it would mean a sharp selloff in the stock. And because most executives are paid today in stock options, the worst thing that could happen would be a bear market.
Most dividend growth companies have done well over the year. But there’s no guarantee it will keep a company out of trouble. Ford had an income growth plan, reaching 30 cents a share per quarter by 2001– and then suddenly had to cut its dividend in half. It’s now down to 5 cents a share.
How Investors Can Profit from Rising Dividends
You can either buy dividend growth stocks, such as in the above listing, or buy a rising dividend fund or ETF. Rising dividend stocks have become so popular that new “rising dividend” mutual funds and ETFs are coming out every year.
The oldest fund is the $1.8 billion Franklin Rising Dividend Fund (FRDPX), begun in 1987. New ones include the Ave Maria Rising Dividend Fund (AVEDX) and the Dividend Growth Rising Fund (ICRDX). And Vanguard recently began an ETF: Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (AMEX: VIG).
Franklin’s fund is ranked three stars by Morningstar, and has a low yield of only 0.95%. Even Ave Maria and Dividend Growth funds yield only 1%. It’s too early to tell how well Vanguard’s VIG is doing.
My favorite ETF is Morningstar’s Dividend Leaders Fund (AMEX: FDL). It’s weighted toward mega-cap companies that pay hefty dividends with above average growth potential. I noticed that its top 10 holdings are all rising dividend stocks. FDL has low volume, but is attracting interest. Its yield is 3.6%, and so far, the fund is beating the market with less volatility.
Take a look in the following chart…
Good investing, AEIOU
Mark
Dividend Growth Stock Investing
The Investment U E-Letter: Issue # 600Wednesday, November 01, 2006
Dividend Growth Stock Investing: How To Get Solid Returns with Little Risk... Plus, 5 Dividend-Paying Investments to Considerby Mark Skousen, Chairman, Investment U
What do beer, cigarettes and drugs have in common?
If you said “vices,” you’re wrong. Blue chip companies have all adopted a superior shareholder benefit program that investors seem to love. It’s called “Dividend Growth” – a policy of increasing their dividend over time.
And, for investors, the idea of Dividend Growth Stock Investing is spreading like wildfire…
The following mature companies all raise their dividend every year, or almost every year:
Beverage Companies
Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc. (NYSE: BUD)
Coca-Cola Bottling (Nasdaq: COKE)
Cigarette Manufacturers
Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE: MO)
Reynolds American, Inc. (NYSE: RAI)
Pharmaceuticals
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)
Merck (NYSE: MRK)
Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY)
Financials
SunTrust (NYSE: STI)
Citigroup (NYSE: C)
Wachovia (NYSE: WB)
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)
Giant Retailers
Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT)
Target (NYSE: TGT)
Costco (Nasdaq: COST)
Best Buy (NYSE: BBY)
Big Oil
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)Since dividends have to come out of earnings, companies that adopt this strategy tend to start out conservatively. The payout ratio is typically 25% or less. But some large-cap blue chip stocks are paying out more than 50% of earnings in dividends.
The yield in dividend growth companies varies dramatically – from a low of 1% or less, such as AIG (NYSE: AIG), to more than 10%, such as Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA).
Some companies have been increasing their annual dividend for 40 years or more:
3M Company (NYSE: MMM) in St. Paul, Minnesota
Coca-Cola in Atlanta, Georgia
Colgate Palmolive (NYSE: CL) of New York, New York.
But here’s the question:
Can the Dividend Growth Stocks Strategy Help Investors Beat the Market?
Some investment advisors swear by dividend growth as the technique for conservative investors.
Lowell Miller, who heads up the money management firm of Miller/Howard Investments, is so taken with the idea that he’s written an entire book on it called The Single Best Investment: Consistently Creating Wealth with Dividend Growth.
He states, “Dividend growth is real. Neither dividends nor dividend growth are some propaganda from the company, nor some hype from a brokerage firm or newsletter writer, nor some error of judgment by a finance magazine.” He calls dividend growth investing “sensible, easy, and profitable,” offering solid returns with the lowest possible risk.
Why? Because companies that increase their dividend are constantly under pressure to perform well and earn a profit every year. If they start losing money, the board of directors will be forced to do something they hate to d decrease or suspend the dividend. Most avoid it like the plague, in part because it would mean a sharp selloff in the stock. And because most executives are paid today in stock options, the worst thing that could happen would be a bear market.
Most dividend growth companies have done well over the year. But there’s no guarantee it will keep a company out of trouble. Ford had an income growth plan, reaching 30 cents a share per quarter by 2001– and then suddenly had to cut its dividend in half. It’s now down to 5 cents a share.
How Investors Can Profit from Rising Dividends
You can either buy dividend growth stocks, such as in the above listing, or buy a rising dividend fund or ETF. Rising dividend stocks have become so popular that new “rising dividend” mutual funds and ETFs are coming out every year.
The oldest fund is the $1.8 billion Franklin Rising Dividend Fund (FRDPX), begun in 1987. New ones include the Ave Maria Rising Dividend Fund (AVEDX) and the Dividend Growth Rising Fund (ICRDX). And Vanguard recently began an ETF: Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (AMEX: VIG).
Franklin’s fund is ranked three stars by Morningstar, and has a low yield of only 0.95%. Even Ave Maria and Dividend Growth funds yield only 1%. It’s too early to tell how well Vanguard’s VIG is doing.
My favorite ETF is Morningstar’s Dividend Leaders Fund (AMEX: FDL). It’s weighted toward mega-cap companies that pay hefty dividends with above average growth potential. I noticed that its top 10 holdings are all rising dividend stocks. FDL has low volume, but is attracting interest. Its yield is 3.6%, and so far, the fund is beating the market with less volatility.
Take a look in the following chart…
Good investing, AEIOU
Mark
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Bull market over?
Another Brick in the Wall:Want to know how to spot the start of a bear market?
The answer may be right in front of you. Dylan Jovine "THERE ARE 3 PROVEN WAYS TO TELL WHEN A BULL MARKET IS OVER."At least that's what the Old Timers used to tell me when I was a young buck on the Street. Of course I never listened to them at the time. You have to remember, back in my 20's, I happened to know it all. But one single event in my life changed my mind. The Date: January, 2000 The Place: I was sitting in my office in Manhattan, daydreaming about playing point guard for the Knicks. Suddenly I heard the news: America Online was purchasing Time Warner. I was stunned. "Wow" was all I could muster. It was at that point that the Old Timers' voices came back to me. You can always tell a bull market is over by THREE things Dylan …
BAD IPO'S: The quality (or lack thereof) of the companies that are being brought public;
TAKEOVERS (Part I): When the new bull market leaders' stocks are so overvalued that they have paper to buy the old ones;
TAKEOVERS (Part II): When long-term operators sell out at a historical peak in a given earnings cycle or the system is so awash with money that deals are hitting al-time highs (we'll call these "mega-deals" like wee seeing now with private equity!
(Of course I left out the part where the Old Timer said, "You'll learn the hard way, you arrogant little fool." But you get my point.) Naturally, when America Online's stock became so over-inflated that it was able to acquire Time Warner, it proved the theory correct - the bear market started only four months later. (It also proved that Gerry Levin and all the schmucks advising him - including now CEO Dick Parsons - had never studied history … but that's another story.) Almost 15 years earlier - back in 1987 - the same thing had happened. We were right at the end of the cheap-money LBO era. The big deal left on the plate was UAL. The private equity firms trying to buy the company said they would round up the financing. But the Fed raised rates, the price of money became too expensive, and the financing for that deal fell apart. Soon after, the stock market crashed.
Both eras had two things in common: 1. A huge bull market being powered by one strong area of the economy.2. The end of cheap financing, as the Fed began to raise interest rates. Now back to my original point: Here we are in 2006. We've had a huge cyclical recovery powered by two things: 1. Cheap money2. A boom in housing prices. Certainly, the cheap money helped create the boom in housing prices, but consumers did something that human nature says they'll always do: they spent like they were sailors on leave. What I'm saying is that we may have very well hit the top of this particular bull market cycle. What makes me say that? It was the recent announcement that Golden West Financial (SYM: GDW) agreed to be purchased by Wachovia (SYM: WB). Now GDW's mortgage business - which represents over 90% of its total business - itself symbolizes the surge in cheap money and rising home prices. Almost 30% of their mortgage portfolio is in adjustable rate mortgages (ARMS). Even worse, many of their mortgages allow customers to pay only what they could afford each month. Of course, whatever they can't pay gets tacked onto the mortgage. (This has the perverse effect of generating "negative" equity for people who opt to "pay what they can afford.") And to top it off, the old timers who are running it - the Sandler couple - have been in the game for close to 50 years.
Don't you think they know when to sell by now? Of course they do. (Note to Wachovia shareholders: "SELL NOW." Regardless of the positive spin you're hearing on the deal, the guy running Wachovia must be getting advice from Gerry Levin.) How to Identify a Changing Market A market changing from bull to bear usually doesn't happen overnight - it requires a paradigm shift in thinking. That's why 99% of investors don't know they're in a bull market until most of the money is made, and 99% of investors don't know they're in a bear market until most of the money is already lost. But, as I've explained, there have always been a couple of indicators that have been pretty darn solid throughout history. And a few of them are screaming at us right now! I guess a few of you wise-guys reading this will write in asking me how to identify the beginning of the next bull market cycle? I'll give you a hint: You'll know stocks are cheap when you see a bunch of old-timers who you haven't seen in a while running around Wall Street, canes in hand, to place their bets and go long. Nothing ever beats good old-fashioned, hard-earned experience.
Please let us know what you think about Dylan's article. Rate his article here »
The answer may be right in front of you. Dylan Jovine "THERE ARE 3 PROVEN WAYS TO TELL WHEN A BULL MARKET IS OVER."At least that's what the Old Timers used to tell me when I was a young buck on the Street. Of course I never listened to them at the time. You have to remember, back in my 20's, I happened to know it all. But one single event in my life changed my mind. The Date: January, 2000 The Place: I was sitting in my office in Manhattan, daydreaming about playing point guard for the Knicks. Suddenly I heard the news: America Online was purchasing Time Warner. I was stunned. "Wow" was all I could muster. It was at that point that the Old Timers' voices came back to me. You can always tell a bull market is over by THREE things Dylan …
BAD IPO'S: The quality (or lack thereof) of the companies that are being brought public;
TAKEOVERS (Part I): When the new bull market leaders' stocks are so overvalued that they have paper to buy the old ones;
TAKEOVERS (Part II): When long-term operators sell out at a historical peak in a given earnings cycle or the system is so awash with money that deals are hitting al-time highs (we'll call these "mega-deals" like wee seeing now with private equity!
(Of course I left out the part where the Old Timer said, "You'll learn the hard way, you arrogant little fool." But you get my point.) Naturally, when America Online's stock became so over-inflated that it was able to acquire Time Warner, it proved the theory correct - the bear market started only four months later. (It also proved that Gerry Levin and all the schmucks advising him - including now CEO Dick Parsons - had never studied history … but that's another story.) Almost 15 years earlier - back in 1987 - the same thing had happened. We were right at the end of the cheap-money LBO era. The big deal left on the plate was UAL. The private equity firms trying to buy the company said they would round up the financing. But the Fed raised rates, the price of money became too expensive, and the financing for that deal fell apart. Soon after, the stock market crashed.
Both eras had two things in common: 1. A huge bull market being powered by one strong area of the economy.2. The end of cheap financing, as the Fed began to raise interest rates. Now back to my original point: Here we are in 2006. We've had a huge cyclical recovery powered by two things: 1. Cheap money2. A boom in housing prices. Certainly, the cheap money helped create the boom in housing prices, but consumers did something that human nature says they'll always do: they spent like they were sailors on leave. What I'm saying is that we may have very well hit the top of this particular bull market cycle. What makes me say that? It was the recent announcement that Golden West Financial (SYM: GDW) agreed to be purchased by Wachovia (SYM: WB). Now GDW's mortgage business - which represents over 90% of its total business - itself symbolizes the surge in cheap money and rising home prices. Almost 30% of their mortgage portfolio is in adjustable rate mortgages (ARMS). Even worse, many of their mortgages allow customers to pay only what they could afford each month. Of course, whatever they can't pay gets tacked onto the mortgage. (This has the perverse effect of generating "negative" equity for people who opt to "pay what they can afford.") And to top it off, the old timers who are running it - the Sandler couple - have been in the game for close to 50 years.
Don't you think they know when to sell by now? Of course they do. (Note to Wachovia shareholders: "SELL NOW." Regardless of the positive spin you're hearing on the deal, the guy running Wachovia must be getting advice from Gerry Levin.) How to Identify a Changing Market A market changing from bull to bear usually doesn't happen overnight - it requires a paradigm shift in thinking. That's why 99% of investors don't know they're in a bull market until most of the money is made, and 99% of investors don't know they're in a bear market until most of the money is already lost. But, as I've explained, there have always been a couple of indicators that have been pretty darn solid throughout history. And a few of them are screaming at us right now! I guess a few of you wise-guys reading this will write in asking me how to identify the beginning of the next bull market cycle? I'll give you a hint: You'll know stocks are cheap when you see a bunch of old-timers who you haven't seen in a while running around Wall Street, canes in hand, to place their bets and go long. Nothing ever beats good old-fashioned, hard-earned experience.
Please let us know what you think about Dylan's article. Rate his article here »
Friday, March 9, 2007
Health Alert 58 - Exercise Your Heart Really Needs
Dr Sears Pace Health Alert 58 - Exercise Your Heart Really Needs
"Our health care system needs change. Instead of real health care, we have only sick care. Instead of natural foods, we have processed, chemicalized foods. Instead of nutrition and natural supplement research, we have only studies paid for by the drug companies. Our commitment to you is to find the answers to your wellness questions through scientific research and public education." Al Sears, MD, Founder
Exercise Your Heart Really Needs#58
Here's a fact missed by just about everyone. To keep your heart beating longer and stronger, long duration endurance training is the last thing that it needs. You will do much more for your heart by exercising in brief spurts. Ten minutes a day, if you do it effectively.
*Less is More*
Conventional wisdom says that your heart needs endurance training to remain healthy. Indeed, they use cardiovascular endurance (CVE) as a synonym for heart conditioning. But is this really what your heart needs? I don't think so.
Heart attacks aren't caused by a lack of endurance. Heart attacks typically occur at rest or at periods of very high cardiac output. Often there is a sudden increase in demand. A person lifts a heavy object, is having sex or receives an unexpected emotional blow. The sudden demand for cardiac output exceeds that heart's capacity to adapt.
What you really need is faster cardiac output. By exercising for long periods, you actually induce the opposite response. When you exercise continuously for more than about 10 minutes, your heart has to become more efficient. Greater efficiency comes from “downsizing”. You give up maximal capacity because smaller can go further.
A recent Harvard study examined middle-aged men, exercise, and cardiovascular health. Researchers found that men who performed repeated short bouts of exercise reduced their heart disease risk by 100% more than those who performed long duration exercise.
So how do you increase your cardiac capacity? I have worked with athletes, trainers and patients at our Research Foundation to produce P.A.C.E. (Progressively Accelerating Cardiopulmonary Exertion). It has produced dramatic results in my cardiac patients.
*Getting Started*
The first feature of the P.A.C.E. plan is progressivity. This simply means repeated changes in the same direction. Do a bit extra this week that you didn't do last week.
Most people doing cardiovascular exercise increase the duration. That's precisely what I want you to avoid. Gradually increase some measure of intensity instead. Begin light and gradually pick up the pace or add resistance as your capacity increases.
The second principle is acceleration. In other words, get up to speed a little faster in the next session than you did in the last. When you are deconditioned, it will take several minutes to gear up your breathing and heart rates. But as you get more accustomed to the challenge, you will respond faster. As you get into better shape, you will increase the intensity in each session and increase the intensity earlier in each session.You must do one other thing differently than standard exercise of the past. As your conditioning increases, decrease the duration of the exercise interval. Use briefer and briefer episodes of gradually increasing intensity. Start with 20 minutes every other day. As you get into better shape, break those 20 minutes into two 10 minute intervals with 5 minutes of rest in between. After a few weeks, break those 20 minutes into four 5 minute intervals with 2 minutes of rest in between. Continue to break your exercise into shorter intervals at you own pace.
When you are well conditioned, you will be using “mini-intervals”. For instance, my intervals for biking are less than a minute followed by a minute of rest repeated for 8 intervals.
You can use any activity that will give your heart and lungs a bit of a challenge. My favorites are swimming, biking, running and elliptical machines. I switch off between them to keep it fun and lower the chance of “overuse injuries”. What you will use will depend on your level of fitness. The important thing again is that the challenge advances gradually through time.
*Bonus Benefits*
In addition to increasing the capacity of your heart and lungs, short-duration exercise:
? Burns your fat. In Health Alert 28, I showed the benefits of short-duration exercise for fat loss? Improves your cholesterol. I have observed this in my own clinic. A new Irish study confirms this phenomenon. ? Boosts your testosterone. Testosterone counters memory loss, the accumulation of fat, low libido, sexual dysfunction, and the loss of strength and bone in both men and women.? Saves your time. You don't need to spend hours at the gym. Use that extra time and your new-found vigor to enjoy your life.
Al Sears MD
1 Circulation 2000 Aug. 29; 102
Wellness Research Foundation • 12794 Forest Hill Blvd., Suite 16 • Wellington, FL 33414 Phone: 561.784.7852 • Fax: 561.784.7851 Copyright ©2005 Wellness Research Foundation. All rights reserved. Web design by Webdex, Inc.
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Coenzyme Q10
Testosterone Therapy
About Us
About Dr. Sears
The Truth
"Our health care system needs change. Instead of real health care, we have only sick care. Instead of natural foods, we have processed, chemicalized foods. Instead of nutrition and natural supplement research, we have only studies paid for by the drug companies. Our commitment to you is to find the answers to your wellness questions through scientific research and public education." Al Sears, MD, Founder
Exercise Your Heart Really Needs#58
Here's a fact missed by just about everyone. To keep your heart beating longer and stronger, long duration endurance training is the last thing that it needs. You will do much more for your heart by exercising in brief spurts. Ten minutes a day, if you do it effectively.
*Less is More*
Conventional wisdom says that your heart needs endurance training to remain healthy. Indeed, they use cardiovascular endurance (CVE) as a synonym for heart conditioning. But is this really what your heart needs? I don't think so.
Heart attacks aren't caused by a lack of endurance. Heart attacks typically occur at rest or at periods of very high cardiac output. Often there is a sudden increase in demand. A person lifts a heavy object, is having sex or receives an unexpected emotional blow. The sudden demand for cardiac output exceeds that heart's capacity to adapt.
What you really need is faster cardiac output. By exercising for long periods, you actually induce the opposite response. When you exercise continuously for more than about 10 minutes, your heart has to become more efficient. Greater efficiency comes from “downsizing”. You give up maximal capacity because smaller can go further.
A recent Harvard study examined middle-aged men, exercise, and cardiovascular health. Researchers found that men who performed repeated short bouts of exercise reduced their heart disease risk by 100% more than those who performed long duration exercise.
So how do you increase your cardiac capacity? I have worked with athletes, trainers and patients at our Research Foundation to produce P.A.C.E. (Progressively Accelerating Cardiopulmonary Exertion). It has produced dramatic results in my cardiac patients.
*Getting Started*
The first feature of the P.A.C.E. plan is progressivity. This simply means repeated changes in the same direction. Do a bit extra this week that you didn't do last week.
Most people doing cardiovascular exercise increase the duration. That's precisely what I want you to avoid. Gradually increase some measure of intensity instead. Begin light and gradually pick up the pace or add resistance as your capacity increases.
The second principle is acceleration. In other words, get up to speed a little faster in the next session than you did in the last. When you are deconditioned, it will take several minutes to gear up your breathing and heart rates. But as you get more accustomed to the challenge, you will respond faster. As you get into better shape, you will increase the intensity in each session and increase the intensity earlier in each session.You must do one other thing differently than standard exercise of the past. As your conditioning increases, decrease the duration of the exercise interval. Use briefer and briefer episodes of gradually increasing intensity. Start with 20 minutes every other day. As you get into better shape, break those 20 minutes into two 10 minute intervals with 5 minutes of rest in between. After a few weeks, break those 20 minutes into four 5 minute intervals with 2 minutes of rest in between. Continue to break your exercise into shorter intervals at you own pace.
When you are well conditioned, you will be using “mini-intervals”. For instance, my intervals for biking are less than a minute followed by a minute of rest repeated for 8 intervals.
You can use any activity that will give your heart and lungs a bit of a challenge. My favorites are swimming, biking, running and elliptical machines. I switch off between them to keep it fun and lower the chance of “overuse injuries”. What you will use will depend on your level of fitness. The important thing again is that the challenge advances gradually through time.
*Bonus Benefits*
In addition to increasing the capacity of your heart and lungs, short-duration exercise:
? Burns your fat. In Health Alert 28, I showed the benefits of short-duration exercise for fat loss? Improves your cholesterol. I have observed this in my own clinic. A new Irish study confirms this phenomenon. ? Boosts your testosterone. Testosterone counters memory loss, the accumulation of fat, low libido, sexual dysfunction, and the loss of strength and bone in both men and women.? Saves your time. You don't need to spend hours at the gym. Use that extra time and your new-found vigor to enjoy your life.
Al Sears MD
1 Circulation 2000 Aug. 29; 102
Wellness Research Foundation • 12794 Forest Hill Blvd., Suite 16 • Wellington, FL 33414 Phone: 561.784.7852 • Fax: 561.784.7851 Copyright ©2005 Wellness Research Foundation. All rights reserved. Web design by Webdex, Inc.
' rid="Menu1i" ri2="/img/nav/home2.gif" ri1="/img/nav/home1.gif" ro="1" Hilite="0" ChildCntnr="null" LinkTxt="/index.php" Level="1" PrvMbr="null">
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Coenzyme Q10
Testosterone Therapy
About Us
About Dr. Sears
The Truth
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
Gmail - High Tech Meets Low Tech in a Fuel Cell
High Tech Meets Low Tech in a Fuel Cell
High Tech Meets Low Tech in a Fuel Cell By Jonathan KolberMarch 7, 2007
A researcher at the University of Hawaii has developed a fuel cell that burns charcoal.
It’s different from conventional fuel cells in two ways. First, charcoal is a renewable fuel and (second) the burning works at relatively warm temperatures -- warm enough to bake bread.
Most fuel cells are designed to burn hydrogen. It’s touted as a “clean fuel” while most think of charcoal as dirty.
Actually, the burning of hydrogen just displaces the pollution. Here’s why…
Hydrogen is not widely available in nature in pure collectible form. It takes energy to get it there. The best way to do is by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen but, guess what?
Old-fashioned power plants do that “dirty work.” Yes, fuel cell-based vehicles may emit nice water vapors, but the power plants making them possible will still be furiously cranking out carbon dioxide (CO2) hundreds of miles away.
That’s why I’ve never considered fuel cells a real solution to global warming or a true power source. They’re more like camouflage for a continued fossil fuel regime.
Dr. Antal’s approach is different. He describes it as, “effectively a battery that uses charcoal to make electricity.” It doesn’t produce soot.
It works at 400 degrees Farenheit. Conventional fuel cells work at approximately 1,500 degrees. The system should be suitable for mid-sized power plants and perhaps even vehicles.
\n****************************\nBeat Big Pharma to 3,000% Gains\n \nA small, under-the-radar pharmaceuticals pioneer has brought America's most dreaded disease to its knees... Gains of 30-60 times your money or MORE are all but certain if you're holding shares when Big Pharma buys it out.\nGet all the details in this special report...\n\nhttp://www1.youreletters.com/t/996725/10866704/817256/0/\n****************************\nThe system works similarly to a battery, except that the positive terminal is filled with charcoal dust and the whole system is under pressure. The negative terminal catalyzes the “battery solution,” which causes the charcoal to turn into carbon dioxide and water, thereby releasing energy.\nTraditional fossil fuels, such as gasoline, release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere that’s been deeply trapped underground. That’s how they add to atmospheric CO2. \nCharcoal, on the other hand, is simply is way of storing carbon dioxide captured by above-ground plants. Burning it releases that CO2 back into the atmosphere for no net gain.\nA few challenges remain. Antal’s group is working on streamlining the feed of charcoal into the system and optimizing the catalysts and mixtures.\nThey have also developed a “flash carbonization reactor.” It turns all kinds of biomass such as macadamia nut shells, wood and grass into charcoal. A commercial-sized version of this could potentially work in perfect synergy with the new fuel cells.\nLet’s see if the proponents of fuel cells jump all over this one. Don’t be surprised if they ignore it. In any case, large-scale deployment is at minimum five years away.\nMeanwhile, people I know are quietly gathering resources to pursue real alternatives to fossil fuels. As I’m able to share developments with you, I will do so.",1]
);
//-->
****************************
Beat Big Pharma to 3,000% Gains
A small, under-the-radar pharmaceuticals pioneer has brought America's most dreaded disease to its knees... Gains of 30-60 times your money or MORE are all but certain if you're holding shares when Big Pharma buys it out.
Get all the details in this special report...
http://www1.youreletters.com/t/996725/10866704/817256/0/
****************************
The system works similarly to a battery, except that the positive terminal is filled with charcoal dust and the whole system is under pressure. The negative terminal catalyzes the “battery solution,” which causes the charcoal to turn into carbon dioxide and water, thereby releasing energy.
Traditional fossil fuels, such as gasoline, release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere that’s been deeply trapped underground. That’s how they add to atmospheric CO2.
Charcoal, on the other hand, is simply is way of storing carbon dioxide captured by above-ground plants. Burning it releases that CO2 back into the atmosphere for no net gain.
A few challenges remain. Antal’s group is working on streamlining the feed of charcoal into the system and optimizing the catalysts and mixtures.
They have also developed a “flash carbonization reactor.” It turns all kinds of biomass such as macadamia nut shells, wood and grass into charcoal. A commercial-sized version of this could potentially work in perfect synergy with the new fuel cells.
Let’s see if the proponents of fuel cells jump all over this one. Don’t be surprised if they ignore it. In any case, large-scale deployment is at minimum five years away.
Meanwhile, people I know are quietly gathering resources to pursue real alternatives to fossil fuels. As I’m able to share developments with you, I will do so.
\nTo your profitable future,Jonathan Kolber \nP.S.:\n Get the exclusive info on "The Only Stock You'll Need to Own Over the Next 10 Years."\n America's most famous investor has already made over $550 million holding this stock...and he's still got $839 million in shares...making it one of the biggest positions in his portfolio...and holding it right now could be as smart as taking a time machine back 40 years ago...and snatching up shares in one of the greatest blue chip stock stories of our time...\n \nWhich company am I talking about?\nLet me send you a FREE report that reveals everything...\n\nhttp://www1.youreletters.com/t/996725/10866704/817257/0/\n\n\nPenny Sleuth\n is a free e-mail service that's delivered every weekday, brought to you by a team of brilliant market analysts. To learn more or to subscribe, see: http://www.pennysleuth.com\n If you have not already done so, please click here to confirm your subscription. This will help us ensure you get every Sleuth eletter without interruption.\n http://www1.youreletters.com/t/996725/10866704/787079/0/\n \n\n\n\n",1]
);
//-->
To your profitable future,Jonathan Kolber
High Tech Meets Low Tech in a Fuel Cell By Jonathan KolberMarch 7, 2007
A researcher at the University of Hawaii has developed a fuel cell that burns charcoal.
It’s different from conventional fuel cells in two ways. First, charcoal is a renewable fuel and (second) the burning works at relatively warm temperatures -- warm enough to bake bread.
Most fuel cells are designed to burn hydrogen. It’s touted as a “clean fuel” while most think of charcoal as dirty.
Actually, the burning of hydrogen just displaces the pollution. Here’s why…
Hydrogen is not widely available in nature in pure collectible form. It takes energy to get it there. The best way to do is by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen but, guess what?
Old-fashioned power plants do that “dirty work.” Yes, fuel cell-based vehicles may emit nice water vapors, but the power plants making them possible will still be furiously cranking out carbon dioxide (CO2) hundreds of miles away.
That’s why I’ve never considered fuel cells a real solution to global warming or a true power source. They’re more like camouflage for a continued fossil fuel regime.
Dr. Antal’s approach is different. He describes it as, “effectively a battery that uses charcoal to make electricity.” It doesn’t produce soot.
It works at 400 degrees Farenheit. Conventional fuel cells work at approximately 1,500 degrees. The system should be suitable for mid-sized power plants and perhaps even vehicles.
\n****************************\nBeat Big Pharma to 3,000% Gains\n \nA small, under-the-radar pharmaceuticals pioneer has brought America's most dreaded disease to its knees... Gains of 30-60 times your money or MORE are all but certain if you're holding shares when Big Pharma buys it out.\nGet all the details in this special report...\n\nhttp://www1.youreletters.com/t/996725/10866704/817256/0/\n****************************\nThe system works similarly to a battery, except that the positive terminal is filled with charcoal dust and the whole system is under pressure. The negative terminal catalyzes the “battery solution,” which causes the charcoal to turn into carbon dioxide and water, thereby releasing energy.\nTraditional fossil fuels, such as gasoline, release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere that’s been deeply trapped underground. That’s how they add to atmospheric CO2. \nCharcoal, on the other hand, is simply is way of storing carbon dioxide captured by above-ground plants. Burning it releases that CO2 back into the atmosphere for no net gain.\nA few challenges remain. Antal’s group is working on streamlining the feed of charcoal into the system and optimizing the catalysts and mixtures.\nThey have also developed a “flash carbonization reactor.” It turns all kinds of biomass such as macadamia nut shells, wood and grass into charcoal. A commercial-sized version of this could potentially work in perfect synergy with the new fuel cells.\nLet’s see if the proponents of fuel cells jump all over this one. Don’t be surprised if they ignore it. In any case, large-scale deployment is at minimum five years away.\nMeanwhile, people I know are quietly gathering resources to pursue real alternatives to fossil fuels. As I’m able to share developments with you, I will do so.",1]
);
//-->
****************************
Beat Big Pharma to 3,000% Gains
A small, under-the-radar pharmaceuticals pioneer has brought America's most dreaded disease to its knees... Gains of 30-60 times your money or MORE are all but certain if you're holding shares when Big Pharma buys it out.
Get all the details in this special report...
http://www1.youreletters.com/t/996725/10866704/817256/0/
****************************
The system works similarly to a battery, except that the positive terminal is filled with charcoal dust and the whole system is under pressure. The negative terminal catalyzes the “battery solution,” which causes the charcoal to turn into carbon dioxide and water, thereby releasing energy.
Traditional fossil fuels, such as gasoline, release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere that’s been deeply trapped underground. That’s how they add to atmospheric CO2.
Charcoal, on the other hand, is simply is way of storing carbon dioxide captured by above-ground plants. Burning it releases that CO2 back into the atmosphere for no net gain.
A few challenges remain. Antal’s group is working on streamlining the feed of charcoal into the system and optimizing the catalysts and mixtures.
They have also developed a “flash carbonization reactor.” It turns all kinds of biomass such as macadamia nut shells, wood and grass into charcoal. A commercial-sized version of this could potentially work in perfect synergy with the new fuel cells.
Let’s see if the proponents of fuel cells jump all over this one. Don’t be surprised if they ignore it. In any case, large-scale deployment is at minimum five years away.
Meanwhile, people I know are quietly gathering resources to pursue real alternatives to fossil fuels. As I’m able to share developments with you, I will do so.
\nTo your profitable future,Jonathan Kolber \nP.S.:\n Get the exclusive info on "The Only Stock You'll Need to Own Over the Next 10 Years."\n America's most famous investor has already made over $550 million holding this stock...and he's still got $839 million in shares...making it one of the biggest positions in his portfolio...and holding it right now could be as smart as taking a time machine back 40 years ago...and snatching up shares in one of the greatest blue chip stock stories of our time...\n \nWhich company am I talking about?\nLet me send you a FREE report that reveals everything...\n\nhttp://www1.youreletters.com/t/996725/10866704/817257/0/\n\n\nPenny Sleuth\n is a free e-mail service that's delivered every weekday, brought to you by a team of brilliant market analysts. To learn more or to subscribe, see: http://www.pennysleuth.com\n If you have not already done so, please click here to confirm your subscription. This will help us ensure you get every Sleuth eletter without interruption.\n http://www1.youreletters.com/t/996725/10866704/787079/0/\n \n\n\n\n",1]
);
//-->
To your profitable future,Jonathan Kolber
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