Is the new OVI Index the same or similar in principle to the moneystream indicator used in Worden Telechart? - Powered by Kayako SupportSuite Help Desk Software

Is the new OVI Index the same or similar in principle to the moneystream indicator used in Worden Telechart? - Powered by Kayako SupportSuite Help Desk Software
The OVI looks at a combination of options volume, open interest, and volatility in order to measure how money is being invested.

Starting over

April 27

Sold 2 bull put spreads and 2 bear call spreads on DIA and IWM
A whopping $68 profit on the DIA with 4 contracts for a 17% gain

An $82 profit on the IWM with 4 contracts for a 20% gain.

Markets still rising steadily. Feds pumping 600 Billion more into markets. RSI rising. Volatility low.

ANALYTICAL TOOLBOX: Probability of Profit - Optionetics Commentary

ANALYTICAL TOOLBOX: Probability of Profit - Optionetics Commentary

2010.8

DIA

The September spread expired safely with the SPY closing at 107 well below our Aug 115/116 credit spread. This was a only a five contract play at 27 cents. That left a profit of $117.50 after commissions. A 13.5% profit for the month.

This month the VIX is turning up a bit.

Jumped into DIA, SPY, FXI and GLD with both feet.



All of the ETF's are trading below the 200 day SMA, ADX is starting to turn up, the MACD turned down, and the ATR is still low.
Just started checking out TEDLINES PNF charts over at stockcharts.com for support and resistance reference.

Here are the trades I went in with today.
10 DIA Bear Credit Spread Sept 105/106 Calls for 17 cents credit
10 FXI Bear Credit Spread Sept 41/42 Calls for 16 cents credit
10 SPY Bear Credit Spread Sept 110/111 Calls for 19 cents credit
10 GLD Bull Put Spread Sept 116/115 Puts for 11 cents credit

A bear call spread in a low volatility world

First week of August 2010.

Looking for income plays in a sideways market.

SPY rose this past week to 113 in low volume. Its above the 200 day sma and the 20month ema which is bullish but its in a rising wedge pattern on low volume which is bearish. The MACD is rising. The ADX is declining.

VIX is low around 22. Falling VIX = rising stocks but if its at an extreme (under 25) then it signals a possible top. Wait for crossover confirmation.

Put/Call ratio is sitting above the .60 range.

Entered in (5) Aug10 115/116 Bear Call Spread for a credit of .31.
Imp prob 115 - 20%
Imp prob 116 - 19%
Risk is spread - credit or 100 - 31 = 69
69 x 5 contracts = 345
Probability exp 115 27.32%
Probability exp 116 19.79%
Profit is limited to $155

How the World's Best Investors See the Market By Porter Stansberry

The world's best investors don't see the market the way you do. And I mean that literally... They look at the market through different lenses. Most investors know how to value equities using various valuation ratios – like the price-to-earnings ratio, the price-to-book ratio, or dividend yields. These valuation studies are important when you're buying individual stocks. And they can give you some idea of whether or not the market as a whole is attractive. But... there are much better ways to see valuation in the markets. For example, here's a chart of the S&P 500 going back to 1975. This is the way you probably look at the market today. And when you look at the market this way, it appears pretty expensive. Stocks have been mostly going up for a long time. The recent big selloffs didn't bring the S&P 500 index back down all that much... or so it seems when you look at a plain chart.

But there's a much better and more accurate way to view the markets. The next chart is the S&P 500 again, from the same time period (starting in 1975). As you can see, this chart looks nothing like the first one. In this chart, you can plainly see the big top formed in stocks in the early 2000s. And you can see the huge mania of the 1990s – where the chart goes nearly straight up. But in this chart, the second top in stocks we saw in 2007 doesn't exist. It's like the bull market of 2002-07 never happened.

This chart is the S&P 500, but measured in gold, rather than U.S. dollars. What it shows is the value of stocks compared to gold. Gold is a much better standard of value than the U.S. dollar because it can't be printed or manipulated as easily as the U.S. dollar. What this second chart makes clear is how cheap stocks have really become – something you can't see on the regular S&P 500 chart because of the effects of inflation. At the bottom of stock prices in the late 1970s, just one ounce of gold (then at $800) would have bought an entire unit of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Stocks and gold were trading on a one-to-one basis, based on this measure. At the peak of stock prices in 2000, a unit of the Dow was worth $14,000. And an ounce of gold was only worth $260. To buy the Dow would have cost more than 50 ounces of gold. Obviously, stocks were extremely expensive – 50 times more expensive than they were at the bottom in 1980. Today, gold is trading around $1,000 an ounce. And the Dow, at its recent low, was near 6,000. It would have taken roughly six ounces of gold to buy the Dow. Looking at stocks through the lens of gold gives you a much better idea of where we are in terms of sentiment and valuation. Using this gold ratio will help you make much better asset allocation decisions. You want to buy stocks when the ratio of the Dow to the price of gold is low – less than 10. And you want to buy gold when the ratio is high.

Using a chart just like this, my partner Bill Bonner began to tell people to buy gold and sell stocks in 2000. Using the same chart, I told Doug Casey's Gold Summit audience in March of this year to buy stocks instead of gold. While we may not yet be at the exact bottom of the gold-to-stock ratio, we're close. I'm not telling you to sell your gold. I'm not selling mine. But looking at the chart of stocks vs. gold, you can clearly see it's time to begin to fade gold and buy stocks. Good investing, Porter

P.S. This secret – knowing how to intelligently value assets – is one of the seven secrets of the world's best investors. I dedicated my most recent issue to these seven secrets... many of which I'm sure you've never heard of. I think it's the most important thing I've written all year. You can learn how to access this issue here.

Sector rotation model

 

Sector rotation model

 

 

 

Yahoo's Sector Status 9/17/09

From this list it would seem like we are at the tail end of the Bear Market or near the Market Bottom as Finance and Utilities are priced in the single digits.

But the basic materials, consumer goods and technology are priced in the triple digits putting us closer to the market bottom.

 

Sectors	1-Day Price Chg %	Market Cap	P/E	ROE %	Div. Yield %	Debt to Equity	Price to Book	Net Profit Margin (mrq)	Price To Free Cash Flow (mrq)
Basic Materials	2.042	10872.29B	72.214	5.963	2.956	NA	2.128	3.224	103.844
Conglomerates	3.779	337.70B	10.8	13.2	2.388	NA	7.9	7.2	183.1
Consumer Goods	1.019	2238.74B	14.491	16.67	2.413	NA	-1.057	5.925	454.416
Financial	1.052	17287.30B	4.854	2.818	2.691	NA	1.374	-4.868	12.004
Healthcare	0.886	1915.38B	55.649	12.766	2.343	NA	8.033	10.65	118.678
Industrial Goods	1.729	817.75B	10.549	9.798	1.948	NA	2.216	0.396	86.794
Services	1.266	2624.40B	19.339	9.33	1.796	NA	7.273	1.93	2.462
Technology	0.727	9328.28B	17.322	13.082	1.465	NA	1.923	7.66	103.939
Utilities	2.077	1571.64B	4.316	4.347	1.975	NA	1.586	0.594	1.256

Stockcharts Market Summary 9/17/09

From this list we see low Volatility showing complacency and everything else bullish.

The BPI's showing Energy leading the way pushing deeper into the middle of the sector model.

 

 

 

NYSE 9/17/09

Daily Prices are above the 200 day MA and the 40 week MA.  Bullish.

 

 

 

NYSE 9/17/09

Weekly prices are still below the 200 and 280 day MA. Bearish

 

 

 

NYSE PnF 9/17/09

Bullish

 

 

 

NYSE BPI Daily 9/17/09

Bullish

 

 

 NYSE BPI Weekly 9/17/09

 Bullish